As the year draws to a close, major industry players share their predictions for the upcoming year. These forecasts are notable for the authors’ in-depth expertise and insightful perspectives. Today, we’ll briefly explore “VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions For 2024.” While we may not align with every prediction, we do find VanEck’s rationale and research noteworthy.

For the complete VanEck rationale, refer to the full report.

1. The long-awaited U.S. recession will finally arrive, but so will the first spot Bitcoin ETFs!

  • A recession seems imminent in the U.S., as “leading indicators are now in recessionary territory after 19 months of consecutive declines, close to a record.”
  • Increasing money supply impact: The substantial increase in M2 money supply since the launch of the GLD ETF suggests that the potential inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could be notably higher, reflecting the changed financial landscape.
  • Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs expected: With greater concerns about sovereign debt compared to corporate or household ones, authors anticipate that over $2.4 billion will be invested in newly approved U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024, supporting a Bitcoin price.
  • Fast adoption of Bitcoin ETFs: Significantly reduced spread and trading costs in Bitcoin ETFs compared to traditional platforms may lead to increased adoption.

2. The 4th Bitcoin halving will occur with minimal drama

  • The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is expected to proceed smoothly, with a temporary consolidation phase post-halving due to selling pressure from unprofitable miners.
  • Growth prospects of publicly traded miners: After the halving, authors “expect at least one publicly traded miner to be 10x by the end of the year.”

(Source: VanEck)

Refer to “Bitcoin Market Rollercoaster Guide: Halving Cycles Decoded.”

3. Bitcoin will make an all-time high in Q4

  • U.S. elections’ impact: The election results, considering the potential for regulatory changes, are expected to positively influence the Bitcoin market, with predictions of the Bitcoin price following a pattern coinciding with previous market cycles and key dates.

(Source: VanEck)

4. Ethereum won’t flip Bitcoin in 2024

  • Ethereum will fail to flip Bitcoin in 2024 “but will outperform every mega-cap tech stock.”
  • Ethereum will lose market share to other smart contract platforms: Despite a strong performance in 2024, Ethereum is expected to lose market share to other smart contract platforms like Solana, which have less uncertainty around their scalability roadmaps.

(Source: Technical Roundup, PDF)

5. ETH L2s will capture the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and volume post-EIP-4844

  • Ethereum will implement EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding), significantly reducing transaction fees and enhancing scalability for layer 2 chains such as Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism.
  • Ethereum L2s will consolidate to 2-3 dominant players within a year post-upgrade. Such an upgrade will bolster the efficiency and appeal of Ethereum L2s, leading to this market concentration.

(Source: VanEck)

6. NFT activity will rebound to an all-time high

  • A surge in monthly NFT volumes: Anticipated to reach new all-time highs, driven by a resurgence of interest in crypto.
  • Growth in ‘NFTs on Bitcoin’: The introduction of the Ordinals protocol and the development of layer 2 chains on the Bitcoin network are expected to contribute significantly to a revival in Bitcoin network fees. This growth in Bitcoin’s NFT ecosystem will substantially reduce the dominance of Ethereum in primary NFT sales.

(Source: VanEck)

7. Binance will lose the #1 position for spot trading

  • OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget will emerge as well-funded competitors with the potential to grab the #1 spot.”
  • “With Binance now facing a 3-year DOJ colonoscopy,” Coinbase’s international futures market will expand its market share significantly.

8. Stablecoin market cap will reach a new all-time high as USDC reverses share losses

  • Also, “USDC will flip USDT, as more institutional adoption will reveal a preference for USDC already evident on newer L2 chains.”
  • Tether’s market share losses “may finally materialize after the U.S. Department of Justice takes enforcement against Justin Sun & Tron for KYC infractions, terror financing, and/or market manipulation.” Such an enforcement could significantly erode trust in Tether.

9. DEX market share of spot trading will reach new all-time highs

“…as high-throughput chains like Solana improve the on-chain trading experience for users.”

10. Remittances and smart contract platforms will power a new Bitcoin yield opportunity

  • ‘Bitcoin Staking’ will become a narrative in 2024 due to “the use of the Bitcoin and Layer 2 Lightning (LN) network in some remittance corridors.”
  • Bitcoin’s role as a provider of security to Proof of Stake blockchains will enable “a new business opportunity” for Bitcoin holders in 2024.

11. A breakout blockchain game will finally arrive

  • “Blockchain gaming will see at least one title surpass 1 million+ daily active users, demonstrating the long-awaited potential.”

12. Solana will continue to outperform ETH as DeFi TVL returns

  • Solana will become a top 3 blockchain by market cap, Total Value Locked (TVL), and active users.
  • Solana may join the spot ETF wars, fueled by this rise and “thanks to a flurry of asset managers submitting filings.”

13. DePin networks see meaningful adoption

Decentralized physical infrastructure (DePin) networks will see meaningful adoption that captures the public’s attention; Hivemapper and Helium will lead the rise.

14. New accounting treatment will rejuvenate the case for corporate crypto holdings

  • Layer 2 revenue reporting: “Coinbase will become the first publicly traded company to break out and report Layer 2 blockchain revenues in its quarterly filings as its Base Protocol crosses $100M+ in annualized revenues and becomes a meaningful contributor to the business.”
  • The potential adoption of New Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) guidelines may allow corporates to book mark-to-market gains on crypto, which will favorably impact corporate preference for holding Bitcoin and other crypto as treasury assets.

15. DeFi Reconciles with Know Your Customer (KYC)

  • Rise of KYC-enabled applications: “KYC-enabled and walled garden apps like those using Ethereum Attestation Service or Uniswap Hooks will gain significant traction.”
  • Impact on protocol fees: The additional volume from KYC-gated hooks will significantly bolster protocol fees by allowing new entrants to participate in DeFi without the fear of interacting with OFAC-sanctioned entities.

Once again, refer to the full report for VanEck’s complete rationale.

MetaTalks disclaims responsibility for any investment advice that may be contained in this article. All judgments expressed are solely the personal opinions of the author and the respondents. Any actions related to investing and trading in crypto markets involve the risk of losing funds. Based on the data provided, you make investment decisions in a balanced, responsible manner and at your own risk.