Bitcoin approaches the key $39,000-50,000 pre-halving ‘target zone,’ nearing a crucial Fibonacci retracement level, which may signal the top of its rally before the halving event, as a prominent crypto chartist noted.
“Each cycle BTC had a rally before its halving occurs. Those rallies topped within the 61.8%-78.6% fibonacci retracement area,” — Titan of Crypto.
The general consensus, too, is increasingly leaning towards Bitcoin heading higher in the short term. Post-halving expectations, however, are generally much more optimistic, with projections suggesting a rise to $130,000 or higher by the end of 2025.
From a purely statistical perspective, Ecoinometrics noted that Bitcoin is currently lagging in its halving cycle performance.
It may be diminished returns in action or not. Nic @ecoinometrics, however, points out that “diminishing returns aren’t a curse:”
“The largest tech companies, such as Apple, are pretty much immune to it at this point. And Bitcoin is large enough that diminishing returns should stop being a concern.
What that means is that for the upcoming cycle, while the top of the range of historical returns is unlikely, the bottom of the range is realistic. That still push BTC at $100,000+ per coin over the next ~4 years,” — Ecoinometrics.
And in case you doubt the drivers of that growth, Nic has noted that the Fed’s tightening seems to be de facto canceled already:
Not to say about the looming liquidity crisis in the crypto market, with the supply side of the Bitcoin market being historically tight.
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