The bitcoin price has surged past $45,000 for the first time since ETF market mania, pulling the rest of the crypto market, including Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. Analysts have pinpointed several growth catalysts, yet one far less apparent signal appeared to haven't failed bitcoin and crypto traders since 2015.

Chinese New Year is near, and “historically, when bitcoin was bought three days before and sold ten days after the Chinese New Year, the average return has been 11% for a two-week holding period," as Markus Thielen of 10x Research commented to Forbes.

The Chinese Lunar New Year in 2024 falls on Saturday, February 10th, marking the start of the Year of the Dragon. Celebrations for this cultural festival in China can last up to 16 days.

”The lowest return was in 2019, when bitcoin rose 3%, and the strongest was in 2021, when bitcoin rallied 24%. But besides those two ‘outliers,’ bitcoin rallies during Chinese New Year were evenly distributed at around 9% to 13%," — Markus Thielen for Forbes.

Among the more rational catalysts of the Bitcoin rally, crypto market watchers have pointed to an expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut, a dozen U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launch, and the impending Bitcoin supply cut in April (which may result in significant supply shock this time). And speaking of China, many experts also note an investment exodus due to the Chinese market meltdown.

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At the same time, on-chain analysts have noted distinct outflows in Bitcoin from exchanges to whale wallets, which is also considered a bullish sign.


Needless to say, the broader crypto market is also trading up, with decent prospects for the looming altcoin rally.

Ethereum has led altcoin gains on ETF optimism. From a TA perspective, however, the ETH/BTC chart looks anything but strong, and the likelihood of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved appears uncertain.

“This chart is exhausting and it hasn't done anything other than bleed for around a year now. … Rushing into Ethereum/Bitcoin has been expensive, and we're in no huge rush.” — Technical Roundup, PDF

Tactical trading is hard. Risk management and position sizing are key. Without proper risk management and position sizing, you will suck at trading on a distance.

MetaTalks disclaims responsibility for any investment advice that may be contained in this article. All judgments expressed are solely the personal opinions of the author and the respondents. Any actions related to investing and trading in crypto markets involve the risk of losing funds. Based on the data provided, you make investment decisions in a balanced, responsible manner and at your own risk.