Bitcoin price is hovering around $30,000, and for many, it feels like the bear market is over and that the Federal Reserve could be nearing the end of its interest rate hike policy.
New monthly CPI data is coming in today, Wednesday, April 12th. It's the most important event of the week and has the potential to be defining in the much longer term.
Some pro traders are skeptical about BTC price continuation because of obvious macro headwinds, mostly regulatory, still in place. But from another perspective, it can also look like quite the opposite:
And regarding Fed rates, that's how they are actually estimated by the market:
In terms of technical analysis, the last price impulse clearly invalidates the implied double top pattern in BTCUSD:
From a more long-term perspective, there's an interesting thread regarding RSI on a monthly timeframe from @rektcapital, stating: "Whenever the #BTC Monthly RSI rebounded from the red bottom trendline... It would experience a strong uptrend for a few months, and the price would follow suit."
And @WClementeIII, another prominent on-chain analyst, totally agrees with that vision:
Let's zoom out now:
Currently, #BTC looks to be repeating 2019 rather than 2015 on this Macro Downtrend breakout, according to @rektcapital, a well-known trader and analyst. "We'll be very lucky if #BTC performs a 2015-like retest of the Macro Downtrend resistance."