Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit the highest level since Bitcoin’s all-time high, which is also intuitively confirmed by the strong excitement that has spread on Сrypto Twitter, while the market obviously awaits Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Amid signs of a looming banking crisis in the United States and EU and a declining CPI in the US, investors might expect the Fed to pause any further rate hikes sooner rather than later. And if the results of this meeting meet those expectations, the surge higher looks imminent – and vice versa.
Although if you zoom out, this upcoming meeting no longer seems so decisive, even if it causes a 10-15% correction. Whether the expected macro movement happens this week, next month, or next quarter, there is no evidence yet that it must be any different this time:
Now some crypto enthusiasts rush to promote Bitcoin’s ‘safe haven’ status amidst the banking crisis – again.
Whether or not that’s the case, and whether the current bitcoin rally vindicates the ‘Inflation Hedge’ thesis or simply global markets are ready to get back in the risk-on mode – time will tell.
You may be any skeptical you want regarding that ‘Inflation Hedge’ thesis and still have a bullish case:
Also, the main value appreciation mechanism seems to be still in effect.
On-chain data also reveals some bullish trends for Bitcoin amidst the current rally, according to Glassnode, including the highest transaction activity levels since April 2021.
And even a somewhat alarming surge in outflows from bitcoin-backed investment funds (according to Coinshares data) may have an absolutely ordinary explanation:
“It is evident this sentiment is contrarian relative to the rest of the crypto market, but it may be driven, in part, by the need for liquidity during this banking crisis; a similar situation was seen when the COVID panic first hit in March 2020,” the report said.
“Why am I only talking about bitcoin here?” you may ask. Because for now, it’s just a probable exit from the bear market and a change of trend moment; if it is confirmed, alts will follow hard.
So meanwhile, here are a couple more fancy charts (and candidates for Twitter following, too):