Bitcoin price surged past $37k on renewed optimism for spot ETF(s) approval, propelling the market to an 18-month high — levels not seen since the Terra/Luna collapse. From a macro-perspective, however, Bitcoin profits might seem delivered just on schedule, in line with global liquidity cycles, regardless of specific news catalysts. Meanwhile, news about BlackRock filing for the Ethereum spot ETF on NASDAQ drove the ETH price even harder, past $2100.
Bloomberg ETF analysts say we have now entered a short window where the SEC could potentially approve all 12 pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications simultaneously. Before November 8, individual approvals were possible, but not a collective one. If the SEC intends to act ‘fairly,’ the window from November 8 to November 17 would be an opportunity to greenlight all applicants at once or otherwise defer decisions until early January.
Matrixport analysts suggest Bitcoin’s breakout toward $45k is imminent. With the halving expected in April, positive momentum around a spot ETF in the US, and other seemingly overlooked tailwinds for Bitcoin, “the coming months are shaping up to be exciting ones for Bitcoin investors,” according to Glassnode’s latest report.
At the same time, other prominent analysts noted that previous Bitcoin cycles had similar returns at this stage, echoing Raoul Pal’s stance that halvings are a false narrative, with global liquidity cycles being the actual drivers of Bitcoin’s growth.
So, with spot ETFs or not, Bitcoin appears to be on track within its classic liquidity cycle, with a coinciding pre-halving recovery.
What if something doesn’t go as planned? Swissblock’s recent report outlines a worst-case scenario where the price may retest the $31.5k breakout level, with relatively low odds of breaking below that. And for many sidelined folks, such a dip would present a much-anticipated buying opportunity.
At the same time, BlackRock filed for an Ethereum ETF with NASDAQ, propelling ETH price past $2100, with a decent strength relative to Bitcoin. It’s unclear yet when BlackRock intends to formally file with the SEC, let alone receive approval. Nonetheless, the prevailing market optimism has rendered even the prospect of such developments significant.
This chart shows how relative strength is flipping towards Ethereum as capital flows head from BTC to ETH. (Source)
We could see Ethereum sustain its emerging trend, which generally serves as a good proxy for the broader altcoin market and explains the numerous upticks in altcoin prices.
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